Obamamania and Pakistan

There is no doubt that Barack Obama's resounding victory in the US presidential election is a major watershed in the US political evolution. The election of an Afro-American to the highest office of the land speaks volumes about the political maturity of its people in overcoming the prejudices of race and colour which had once bedeviled the American society. Obama's victory thus marks a clear break from the past and opens new vistas of freedom and opportunity for the American people. They can take pride justly in this milestone in the forward march of the US history.

Looked at from another angle, Obama's victory constitutes an emphatic rejection of President Bush's flawed internal and external policies which have shaken the US economy and involved it in endless wars abroad. Besides, the US under President Bush has been guilty of grave human rights violations in the treatment of enemy combatants and non-combatants as reflected by Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo and the stories of forced renditions and torture. The doctrine of unilateral preemptive intervention as propounded by President Bush and applied in Iraq alienated the US allies and friends besides weakening the UN and multilateralism. All in all, the Bush administration's misconceived security policies through the over-emphasis on the use of force over diplomacy, hard power over the soft power and unilateralism over multilateralism have served to increase hostility towards the US and aggravate the threats to its security.

The results of the US presidential and congressional elections have brought home the resilience of the American people and the self-correcting mechanism which is the hallmark of their political system. As the prestigious weekly, The Economist, recently commented, "In choosing him (Obama), America has shown once again its unrivalled capacity to renew itself, and to surprise."The starting point of the US foreign policy under President Obama would be the recognition of the fact that despite the huge size of its economy and its enormous military strength, the US alone cannot tackle successfully the grave security threats and the difficult economic problems confronting it. In an article entitled Renewing American Leadership in the Foreign Affairs issue of July-August, 2007, Obama observed, "America cannot meet the threats of this century alone, and the world cannot meet them without America. We can neither retreat from the world nor try to bully it into submission. We must lead the world, by deed and by example....The mission of the United States is to provide global leadership grounded in the understanding that the world shares a common security and a common humanity."Consequently, in contrast with the policies pursued by the Bush administration, the Obama presidency will witness increased emphasis on multilateralism and greater attention to the views of allies and friends in grappling with the great issues of our times, be they terrorism, nuclear proliferation, climate change, or the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world. The US under President Obama is also likely to place greater reliance on diplomacy in dealing with serious security issues while keeping the use of force as the option of the last resort in a major departure from the "cowboy foreign policy" which has been pursued by Washington under President Bush.Inevitably, the current US economic and financial crises because of their enormity will absorb a great deal of the time and energy of the Obama administration. While major new domestic initiatives will be required in the US to overcome these crises, global interdependence will dictate close cooperation with other major powers for the purpose. China because of its fast growing economy, the prospect of its GDP at PPP exceeding that of the US by the year 2030 and its colossal foreign exchange reserves amounting to US$1.9 trillion will play an increasingly important role in these international deliberations. These economic compulsions will not only lead to the restructuring of the international financial institutions like the IMF but also to important changes in the way the US deals with the grave security issues of the 21st century.

The Obama administration will accord a higher priority to environmental issues such as global warming than was the case under the Bush presidency. In the above quoted Foreign Affairs article, Obama wrote, "As the world's largest producer of green-house gases, America has the responsibility to lead. While many of our industrial partners are working hard to reduce their emissions, we are increasing ours at a steady clip - by more than ten percent per decade."Finally, it appears from Obama's views expressed so far that a major aim of the US foreign policy under him would be to "strengthen our common security by investing in our common humanity." The United States can, therefore, be expected to allocate increased resources to development assistance and to help build up democratic institutions abroad like strong legislatures and independent judiciaries.What do these changes portend for Pakistan and its foreign policy? Terrorism will remain a high priority issue under President Obama. While Obama may succeed in his promise of withdrawing the US combat forces from Iraq by May 2010, he is likely to pay increased attention to Afghanistan and Pakistan in combating global terrorism. Obama declared previously his intention to hit Al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan's tribal areas if we are unwilling or unable to do so. However, his recent pronouncements on the subject have been more nuanced.It appears that the Obama administration would maintain pressure on Pakistan to do more. But it would also place increased emphasis on strengthening the effectiveness of the Afghan government which is seen by him as being responsible for most of Afghanistan's problems according to a recent interview given by him to MSNBC. This would leave a great deal of room for skilful diplomacy on the part of Pakistan to work out a joint strategy with the US in combating terrorism based on targeting Al-Qaeda elements, engaging moderate Taliban to isolate the extremists both in FATA and Afghanistan, paying increased attention to economic development as an essential element in the counter-terrorism strategy, and realising a new political dispensation in Afghanistan which gives the Pashtuns and the moderate Taliban their due share in the power structure in that country.Bilaterally, the Obama administration will extend increased support to the strengthening of the democratic institutions in Pakistan and enhance substantially the economic assistance to Islamabad relative to the military aid. The bill in the US Congress for raising the development assistance to Pakistan to US$1.5 billion per annum over a ten-year period, proposed by Vice President-elect Joe Biden, would obviously receive the full support of the Obama administration. Needless to add that our success in overcoming our current economic crisis and putting the country on a long-term high growth trajectory would depend more on our ability to adopt the requisite corrective measures domestically rather than on any assistance that we may receive from foreign sources.Pakistan's strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia will continue to impart special importance to it from the point of view of the Obama administration. The same will be true of the way we manage our relations with India, China, Iran, Central Asian Republics and Russia. It will be a measure of the success of our diplomacy if we can manage the complexity of these relations in such a manner as would promote our essential security and economic interests, and strengthen our friendly relations with the important countries in our neighbourhood, especially China, Iran and Afghanistan, while strengthening our friendship and cooperation with the US. The tight-rope diplomacy required for the success of this manoeuvre will test severely the skills of our leadership and diplomats.India will remain the centre-piece of the US strategy for Asia under President Obama. Therefore, while one must welcome Obama's statements calling for a settlement of the Kashmir dispute, it is doubtful that his administration would bring to bear sufficient pressure on India to show the requisite flexibility for the purpose.

The writer is a retired ambassador ...E-mail: javid.husain@gmail.com