DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND: One Too Many

China is facing a shortage of manpower to support its large-scale industrial and economic development programmes.Demography, commonly known as population is a cross-cutting issue. Its dividends are positive, in the sense that size, composition and quality of population are driving the economies of many countries to grow at a faster rate.Conversely, it is also a stumbling block in the economic growth for many countries. Size, composition and quality of population determine factors in economic growth and development.Countries in Western Europe, Canada, Australia and Malaysia that have a smaller population base fall in the first category. However, to sustain their development they encourage higher population growth. The population policies of these countries are to promote higher fertility, reduce infant and child mortality, improve quality of maternal care and reduce maternal mortality to the maximum possible extent. In addition, they provide benefits in the form of maternity leave to expectant mothers or child care allowance in cash or a combination of both. However, even these measures do not producing desired results for many countries and they have to resort to promoting immigration, chiefly from developing countries.

Migration is beneficial for countries on the receiving end and detrimental for countries from which people are migrating, let alone the migrants’ benefits. The latter invests in health, education and professional experience of its immigrating population and just when they are ready to contribute to the economy; the country loses its quality manpower due to migration.Countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America face the problem of a large population base and high population growth rates, finding it extremely difficult to provide the existing population with sustenance, health care and education. The population policies of these countries focus on reducing population growth and promoting all kinds of measures for population control. Being indirect beneficiaries, developed countries, multinational and, at times, international organisations also strongly persuade population control measures. For example birth control pills, syrups and contraceptives are manufactured in developed countries or under license from pharmaceutical firms in developed countries, but are chiefly used in developing countries.Not much attention is paid to social engineering, creating awareness, improving medical care, promoting safe motherhood, child nutrition and female education in the developing world. Studies show that if a girl has attained primary school level education, her chances of having a child early in her child bearing age are reduced to nearly half, no matter what the circumstances. Sri Lanka has demonstrated it many decades ago.Many countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America are following that model and have shown spectacular achievements in controlling population growth. There is a saying that female education is the best contraceptive. Some believe that if Pakistan had used the funds it spent on importing material for population control like contraceptives, drugs and pills on the education of girls; it could have controlled the increasing growth rate of its population. Pakistan has some of the lowest female literacy rates in the world and has not shown any appreciable improvement in the last decade, in spite of persistent claims by the government.

Population policy is a fancy slogan in Pakistan. Even today, estimates of population growth given by the government are hard to believe. International financial institutions and organisations have their own estimates. Every regime and almost all governments in the political history of Pakistan have formulated their own population policies. But like just about every other claim trumpeted by the government departments and tacitly supported by international organisations, even these are far from reality.Moreover, health indicators in Pakistan have not shown considerable, let alone appreciable improvements, even after massive investments by the federal and provincial governments and international organisations.Countries which vehemently pursued policies of controlling population in the past now face yet another dilemma. Their population is becoming old in large numbers faster then they anticipated. China is an example. In order to control population growth, it adopted its famous one-child policy several decades ago. Presently China is facing a shortage of manpower to support its large-scale industrial and economic development programmes. Japan is another example, although population control measures were voluntary, the proportion of population falling in the older age group has bulged due to a decline in fertility in the past. They need a higher proportion of working-age population to sustain development.Hence the demographic dividend works both ways. If the proportion of population in the working age group is healthy, skilled and educated, the demographic dividend is positive and a country’s development is bound to accelerate.